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Netflix to remain top dog in Europe, but market share is shrinking

The Queen’s Gambit

Western Europe is set to add almost 100 million SVOD subscriptions over the next five years.

According to new estimates from Digital TV Research, the region is set to reach 234 million SVOD subscriptions by 2026, up from 137 million at end-2020. 

While it will lose ground to competitors – particularly Disney+ which will continue to grow to over 55 million subscribers – Netflix will remain the largest SVOD player. The market leader will add 20 million subscribers to reach 74 million subs by 2026.

The increasing prominence of Disney+ will see the streamer overtake Amazon Prime Video within the time period, which will increase from 35 million subs in 2020 to 53 million by 2026.

Other services, such as the more region-specific players like Nordic Entertainment Group’s Viaplay and BritBox, will collectively add 20 million subscribers from 26 million in 2020 to 46 million in 2026.

One platform however which will see less growth than previously expected is WarnerMedia’s HBO Max. HBO Max will launch in the six countries where it already has operations – the Nordic countries, Portugal and Spain – before end-2021. The SVOD however will not enter important European markets like the UK, Germany and Italy due to Warner’s exclusivity deals with operator Sky.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “If HBO Max started across the region’s 18 countries in 2021, we estimate that it would amass 10 million subscribers by 2026. This will not happen, so its total will be 3.3 million across six countries by 2026.”