Global TV advertising investment will grow this year and next but will lose overall market share due to the rise of digital, according to GroupM’s updated ad investment forecasts.
The WPP-owned media investment group predicts that globally TV investment – for TV content on traditional TV devices – will grow 0.4% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018, but will lose one share point this year and another next.
However, removing China from the forecast will see TV investment grow 3% this year and 4% next, with share stable at 41%.
“We know that time spent with TV content remains healthy, but monetising those hours gets harder as audiences diffuse across platforms more quickly than the industry can create measurement solutions,” said GroupM.
The study claims that digital investment will exceed traditional TV in 17 markets by year’s end, including the following European markets: Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Hungary, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.
Digital investment growth is expected to be 11.5% in 2017 and 11.3% next year, with digital’s share to increase from 34.1% this year to 36.4% in 2018.
Overall Group M expects world media investment to be US$534.8 billion this year and US$558.0 billion in 2018 – representing total ad spend growth of 3.1% this year and 4.3% next year.
The news follows the publication of GroupM’s ‘The State of Video’ report last month, which claimed that generation Y and generation X will “erode viewing” of TV to the equivalent of about one percentage point a year over the next decade as people in these age groups approach middle age.
The study said that “in startling opposition to history, gen Y and gen Z are actually watching less as they age,” with TV viewing for these ages falling in absolute terms and even more against expected lifestage.