Euroconsult predicts fourfold growth in satellites over 10 years

Research outfit Euroconsult forecasts a fourfold growth in the number of satellites driven by commercial constellations through to 2031.

Euroconsult anticipates over 2,500 satellites to be launched on average every year – or seven satellites a day totaling 3 tons of mass – over 2022-2031.

Civil government and defense customers will remain legacy customers, holding the largest market value of US$29 billion every year with three-quarters of the demand in manufacturing and launch.

According to the research outfit, the six leading space faring governments or organizations, meaning the US, China, Russia, Japan, India and the collectivity of European governments, EU and ESA, will account for two third of the demand in value.

In terms of satellite numbers, non-GEO constellations remain the largest market driver, as 83% of all satellites to be launched over 2022-2031 are expected to be part of constellations, though only accounting for 30% of the manufacturing and launch value.

Non-GEO constellation broadband operators will account for half of the commercial demand in manufacturing and launch value at US$5.3 billion yearly average, whilst GEO communications satellites will average US$3.2 billion, Euroconsult said. Euroconsult forecast a yearly average of 13 orders by 2031, reflecting an eroding broadcasting business and a shift towards broadband business ramping up and not yet offsetting the previous one.

Maxime Puteaux, Principal advisor at Euroconsult and editor of the report said, “Increasing concentrated demands for satellites by a small number of new customers with high pressure on their cost structure will also put vendors’ margins under pressure.” He added that “we have been monitoring satellite ‘mega factories’ and noticed they are emerging ten times faster than the projected demand.

As we expect the 20 legacy vendors to retain at least 40% of the future demand in value, manufacturing oversupply is real and sustainability is at risk.”