The upcoming Disney+ OTT service will be more successful internationally than previously anticipated, believes Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne.
In a research note published on June 13, Swinburne predicted that subscribers to Disney streaming services will reach more than 130 million by 2024. This includes includes Disney+, ESPN + and Hulu, which Disney recently acquired full control of.
By contrast, Netflix had a total of 139 million global subscribers in 2018, after 11 years as a streaming service. However, the investment firm believes that Netflix will reach 280 million subscribers by 2024, leaving Disney some way off the pace.
The note said: “Stepping back and admittedly taking the long view, investing in Disney shares is a play on the durability of its IP. Encouragingly, consumers are already voting with their wallets today, spending an estimated $15-20 billion a year for movies and TV product that will ultimately make its way to Disney+.”
It is estimated that Disney+, in isolation, will reach 70 million subscribers by 2024.
“The global opportunity for Disney+ is significant as it goes to market with a brand and IP advantage, but faces questions on execution and quality of content,” the note concluded.