This is according to a new study by Digital TV Research, which predicts that Netflix’s overall subscriber number will climb by 44% between the end of 2016 and 2022 – with subscriber increases expected across all geographical regions.
By 2022, North America and Western Europe combined are expected to supply 72% of Netflix’s total subscriber base by 2022 – down from 81% in 2016. However, North American Netflix subscriber numbers are expected to climb from 53.6 million in 2016 to 63.3 million in 2022, while in Western Europe they are expected to climb from 18.6 million in 2016 to 29.0 million in 2022.
In Asia Pacific, Netflix’s subscriber count is expected to almost triple from 3.6 million subscribers in 2016 to 10.2 million in 2022. In Latin America numbers the figure is tipped to rise from 10.9 million to 16.3 million.
Growth is also predicted in Netflix’s smaller markets between 2016 and 2022. In Eastern Europe the SVOD service’s subscriber numbers are due to go from 1.1 million to 3.5 million; in MENA they are expected to climb from 655,000 to 3.5 million; and in Africa to go from 172,000 to 1.4 million.
“This impressive growth comes despite Netflix not having direct access to subscribers in the world’s largest country: China,” said Digital TV Research principal analyst, Simon Murray.
“Furthermore, Digital TV Research believes that Netflix will fall foul of Russian legislation. Due to be introduced in July 2017, this restricts foreign companies to only 20% of digital platforms’ equity.”
Netflix established a global presence in January 2016, after it launched in 130 more countries – including across Africa and Eastern Europe.
Digital TV Research estimates that these countries accounted for 3 million subscribers at the end of 2016, with this due to rise to 14 million by 2022 – some 11% of Netflix’s global total.
Subscription revenues for Netflix will climb from US$8.29 billion in 2016 to US$14.86 billion in 2022, according to the research.
The 60 countries that Netflix had a footprint in before January 2016 are expected to provide 90% of revenues in 2022, though Asia Pacific is expected to quadruple its revenues to more than US$1 billion.