The US-based boutique equity investment group claims that by 2025 Netflix’s international subscriber count will include 55 million customers from Europe and almost 45 million from Asia.
“In short, we think the international total addressable market (TAM) is just over 750 million households, and believe NFLX can net 140 million international streaming subs by 2025,” said L&F in a note published on finance site Seeking Alpha.
In Europe the research identifies Germany, France, the UK and Italy as the biggest potential markets – where it claims Netflix has seen “mixed success thus far” – and says Europe’s addressable market by 2025 will be 225 million households.
Asia, excluding China, will hold even more opportunity with an estimated addressable market of some 290 million homes. India and Japan, where Netflix has already announced original content plans, are the biggest addressable markets in this region, according to L&F.
In the Americas, the research estimates that Netflix can target a total market of roughly 120 million households, with Brazil and Mexico the biggest potential markets.
In Africa the market opportunity will be roughly 85 million homes and ”given urbanisation and population size, we think the Africa market is bigger than both the Middle East and Oceania,” said L&F.
In its first quarter earnings announcement Netflix reported that it had 34.53 million total international streaming members, and 46.97 million in the US.
Netflix said it expected to add 2.5 million members in the second quarter of 2016 – 2.0 million internationally and 500,000 in the US.
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