Total TV and video revenue will remain flat over the next five years, despite the promise of TV everywhere and VoD services, according to a new US study by research firm The Diffusion Group (TDG).
The Future of TV Monetisation report says that while TV everywhere and pay TV VoD is showing “promising in-market results,” they are still “relatively nascent” in a business landscape that is known for changing slowly.
“It takes a long time to take new platforms from first in-market trials to fully-realised revenue-generating ecosystems. There will be revenue winners and losers during the next five years, but the total TV/video dollar pool will stay the same,” predicts the report author and senior TDG advisor, Bill Niemeyer.
TDG claims overall TV and video spending has only seen “minor growth” since 2004 – a trend it tips to continue through 2020.
Taking inflation-adjusted dollars to make the comparison, TDG says that between 2004 and 2013, spending growth in this market has increased from US$195 billion to $213 billion.
“This constitutes an increase of only 9% during a 10-year period, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only +1%,” said TDG.
The firm predicts that TV and video revenue over the next five years “will be much like the previous five years in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars, running primarily flat.”