The Digital TV Research report claims that pay TV revenues – including subscription and on-demand fees – will fall between 2013 and 2020 by 1.6% in Western Europe to US$33.35 billion and by 9.2% in North America to US$86.61 billion.
However, this will be offset by gains in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Asia Pacific. In Sub-Sahara Africa revenues are tipped to climb from US$3.17 billion to US$5.35 billion between 2013 and 2020, while in Asia Pac revenues will grow from US$31.24 billion to US$46.03 billion over the same time period.
“Based on forecasts for 138 countries, revenues will fall in 18 countries in 2014, with the US dropping by US$1.05 billion. Revenues will decline for 21 countries between 2013 and 2020,” said the report’s author Simon Murray.
Though America is tipped to remain the world’s largest pay TV revenue market in 2020, it will also suffer the largest revenue fall of any market of US$7.9 billion from 2013 “as homes convert to bundles and as competition forces down prices.” However, cord cutting was tipped to have a “limited impact” with pay TV penetration expected to dip only slightly from 86.4% in 2013 to 84.1% in 2020.
The biggest countries by pay TV revenue growth are expected to be India, Brazil and China with revenues tipped to climb in these countries between 2013 and 2020 by US$6.6 billion, US$2.4 billion and US$2.2 billion respectively.
“Pay TV revenues will more than double in 40 countries between 2013 and 2020. Most of the fast growing nations by percentage increase will be in Africa, with Myanmar, Laos and Bangladesh providing notable exceptions,” said the report.
Overall, satellite TV revenues will overtake cable TV revenues in 2014 and reach $99.9 billion in 2020. Having peaked in 2011, global cable TV revenues will fall to US$80.3 billion in 2020, while digital cable TV revenues will climb by 18% from 2013 to reach $79.0 billion in 2020. IPTV revenues are due to hit US$26.1 billion in 2020, according to the report.